【Hacker News搬运】模拟社会消亡和逆转

hackernews

Title: Modeling societal demise and reversal

模拟社会消亡和逆转

Text:

Url: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fsoc.2024.1194597/full

文章探讨了社会是否陷入了“死亡螺旋”的问题，并提出了可能的解决方案。主要观点如下：

1. 死亡螺旋效应是一个自我强化的恶性循环，包括持续的错误决策、资源流失、否认、不信任、微观管理、教条思维和学习无助感。它通常由外部或内部事件(如危机)引发。

2. 社会衰退的标志包括日益增长的不平等、精英和大众的行为功能障碍以及威权主义的上升。这些因素可能导致战争、饥荒和流行病。

3. 逆转死亡螺旋的关键是高质量的转型领导、恢复信任、开发转型策略，以及避免指责文化、加强民主。 

4. 应对社会衰退需要韧性和同情心，以及避免过度反应和一刀切的政策。个人、团体和社会需要合作，共同致力于构建一个更健康、更繁荣的未来。

5. 文章还讨论了社会复杂自适应系统理论、资源保护理论、社会优势理论等在解释社会衰退中的作用，并提出了可能的解决方案。

总的来说，文章认为社会衰退是一个复杂的过程，需要多方面的努力来逆转。通过理解死亡螺旋的机制，我们可以找到方法来避免或逆转社会衰退。

Post by: rokkitmensch

Comments:

openrisk: The term "modeling" probably means different things in different research domains. I would expect on the one hand an effort to describe the conjectured dynamics with some detail and on the other hand a quantification and validation of the model/hypothesis with empirical (historical) data.Admittedly both are extremely challenging tasks: human society is maybe the most complex system we know and we seem very far from adequate modeling in the above sense.This is not to imply that the phenomena identified and discussed are not relevant factors towards a societal "crisis" but they feel more like a partial collection of hunches and analogies which may or may not be capturing the relevant societal dynamics to a meaningful degree.There are reasons to be concerned though. Underlying the theatricality and subjectivity and collective mind games that drive political and economic behaviors there is the physical reality of the anthropocene and its no longer negligible environmental impacts.Its not unreasonable to conjecture that as ad-hoc and capricious social arrangements hit hard external constraints there will be some unavoidable "adjustments". Whether these will unfold as an out-of-control societal collapse or just another chapter of human history remains to be seen.We should not discount the extreme sophistication and resources available to modern societies. Eventually we may even develop a model of society, though its not clear if it will include the impact of there being a model

openrisk: 术语“；建模”；在不同的研究领域可能意味着不同的东西。我期望一方面努力用一些细节来描述推测的动力学，另一方面对模型；假设与经验（历史）数据 诚然，这两者都是极具挑战性的任务：人类社会可能是我们所知道的最复杂的系统，我们似乎远远没有建立起上述意义上的充分模型 这并不意味着所识别和讨论的现象不是社会“现象”的相关因素；危机”；但它们更像是预感和类比的部分集合，可能在有意义的程度上捕捉到了相关的社会动态，也可能没有 尽管如此，还是有理由感到担忧的。在驱动政治和经济行为的戏剧性、主观性和集体心理游戏的背后，是人类新世的物理现实及其不再可忽视的环境影响 可以不无道理地推测，随着临时和反复无常的社会安排对外部约束的沉重打击，将出现一些不可避免的“问题”；调整”；。这些是否会以失控的社会崩溃或只是人类历史的又一篇章的形式展开，还有待观察 我们不应低估现代社会的极端复杂程度和可利用的资源。最终，我们甚至可以开发一个社会模型，尽管尚不清楚它是否会包括存在模型的影响：-）

doctoboggan: The growing distrust of authority and institutions is something that really worries me. That is what keeps the fabric of society together and I am not sure what comes after the collapse of previously trusted institutions.

doctoboggan: 对权威和机构日益增长的不信任真的让我担心。这就是保持社会结构团结的原因，我不确定以前信任的机构崩溃后会发生什么。

roenxi: > ... [the crisis] seemed to be characterized by groupthink and escalation of commitment to one course of action, at the expense of other possible solutions ...This is my favourite sentence in the whole article. I'm not sure what the solution really is, but spending 12 months in school just teaching people "how to respond to a crisis without panicking and behaving like a herd of sheep" would be of huge societal value.We don't all have to do exactly the same thing. Different people can do different things. I've only seen crises where compromises on individual liberty were a grave mistake; but I've seen a lot of crises where by gum the authorities tried that approach anyway with the populace egging them on.

roenxi: &gt。。。[这场危机]的特点似乎是集体思维和对一种行动方案的承诺升级，而牺牲了其他可能的解决方案 这是我在整篇文章中最喜欢的一句话。I-；我不确定真正的解决方案是什么，但在学校呆了12个月，只是教人们“；如何应对危机而不惊慌失措，表现得像一群羊&quot；将具有巨大的社会价值 我们不；不要都做完全相同的事情。不同的人可以做不同的事情。I-；我只见过在个人自由问题上妥协是一个严重错误的危机；但是I-；我见过很多危机，不管怎样，当局都在民众的怂恿下尝试这种方法。

javajosh: THE major difference between nations is their concept and practice of "justice". Capitalism is a side-effect. Feudalism seems to be every society's first pass at justice, and then capitalism arises by erasing hard class distinctions and deregulating economic exchange. This becomes clear when you ask yourself the question, "If my nation was invaded and occupied, how would things change?"Justice in America is badly broken, and most, if not all of our ills (including distrust in the legitimacy of institutions) is a direct result. It should be easy, cheap, and fast to sue an individual or institution for harm and to get a fair result. It should be easy, cheap, and fast to get arrested for something criminal and be found either guilty or innocent in a fair trial, judged by a jury of peers. Instead, all but the 1% are priced out of the justice system, and the justice system itself is slow, expensive, and fundamentally unjust. The complexity of law and its practice shelters entire ecosystems of "professionals" who's job is to game the system to obtain the desired result. The price of justice, in both time and money, is itself used as leverage. And leverage is Power. Any society that lets its justice system go, lets it rot under layers and layers of complexity, makes it inaccessible to the average person, has undermined its Purpose. Only momentum, particularly the ignorance of the masses who imagine the system to be "mostly functional", keeps it legitimate. But that ignorant goodwill is finite, and decays as more and more smart, self-interested actors take advantage of the moribund system.What I find most astonishing is the profound lack of attention given to the justice system itself. Not just its performance in high-profile cases, but its performance in every day cases. This goes part-and-parcel with police brutality and abuse, the "Marshal Law Bubble" that surrounds every LEO in America, because the justice system has their back in an almost unbelievably complete way. The same holds true for state attorney generals and prosecutors: for every story of a person wrongfully convicted, spending 20+ years in prison, how many times have you ever heard of a prosecutor being prosecuted for their malfeasance? How many horror stories of lawsuits getting bogged down in years of pre-trial motions before the poorer of the two litigants has to give up? How many fathers have been separated from their young children for months or years at the whim of an uncaring family court?In practice, we almost all rely on the fact that its rare to go to court. Everyone knows that to be arrested is to have your life changed, whether or not you're convicted. Everyone knows that to be sued is to lose 10's or 100's of thousands, even if you win. Is this justice? No. It's statistics. It's most people not knowing and not caring because they see the justice system as being only for those who "deserve it". But that's not what justice is supposed to be about. You should be able to sue Roku for changing their terms of service and preventing you from using your TV until you agree. It should be cheap and easy and quick. You should be able to sue Harvard for publishing false data that misled you into doing the wrong thing for your patients, or leading you to wrong conclusions in your own papers. You should be able to sue a LEO for false arrest, violation of your rights, and assault. The fact that you cannot (and in the current system, should not) do any of these things means that bad actors get away with it, constantly, and with no real prospect of correction.Now, whether this problem is isomorphic to ants following in a circle, I don't know. Maybe. It certainly seems like no-one is thinking about it or talking about it. I know that state law boards are a very powerful (perhaps THE most powerful) lobby in America, and serious justice system reforms would undermine their business model. But the simple fact is that our justice system has already failed. The core function of government has failed. And the public is barely aware of it.

javajosh: 国家之间的主要区别在于他们的“；正义”；。资本主义是副作用。封建似乎是每个社会；首先是正义，然后资本主义通过消除严格的阶级区别和放松对经济交流的管制而产生。当你问自己这个问题时，这一点就变得很清楚了；如果我的国家被侵略和占领，情况会如何改变&quot 美国的正义被严重破坏，即使不是所有，我们的大多数弊病（包括对制度合法性的不信任）都是直接结果。起诉个人或机构造成伤害并得到公平的结果应该是简单、廉价、快速的。在由同行组成的陪审团的公正审判中，因犯罪而被捕并被判有罪或无罪应该是容易、廉价、快速的。相反，除了1%之外，所有人都被排除在司法系统之外，而司法系统本身是缓慢的、昂贵的，而且从根本上讲是不公正的。法律及其实践的复杂性遮蔽了“法律”的整个生态系统；专业人士”；谁；他的工作是与系统博弈以获得期望的结果。正义的代价，无论是时间还是金钱，本身都被用作杠杆。杠杆就是力量。任何一个社会，如果放任其司法系统，任由其在层层复杂的情况下腐烂，让普通人无法接近，都会破坏其宗旨。只有冲劲，尤其是群众的无知，他们把这个制度想象成了一种“制度”；大部分是功能性的”；，保持其合法性。但这种无知的善意是有限的，随着越来越多聪明、自私的行为者利用这个垂死的系统，这种善意就会消失 我发现最令人惊讶的是，司法系统本身严重缺乏关注。不仅在备受瞩目的案件中表现出色，在日常案件中也表现出色。这与警察的暴行和虐待行为密不可分；马歇尔法律泡沫&quot；这围绕着美国的每一个LEO，因为司法系统以一种几乎令人难以置信的完整方式支持他们。州检察长和检察官也是如此：每一个被错误定罪的人在监狱里度过20多年的故事，你听说过检察官因渎职而被起诉多少次？在两个诉讼当事人中较贫穷的一个不得不放弃之前，有多少诉讼在多年的审前动议中陷入困境的恐怖故事？有多少父亲在一个漠不关心的家庭法庭的心血来潮下与年幼的孩子分离了数月或数年 在实践中，我们几乎都依赖这样一个事实，即很少上法庭。每个人都知道，被捕就是改变你的生活，无论你是否；再次定罪。每个人都知道，被起诉就是失去10；s或100-s；成千上万，即使你赢了。这是正义吗？不；的统计数据。它；大多数人不知道也不关心，因为他们认为司法系统只为那些“；值得拥有”；。但是；这不是正义的意义所在。你应该可以起诉Roku更改他们的服务条款，并在你同意之前禁止你使用电视。它应该便宜、简单、快捷。你应该能够起诉哈佛大学发布虚假数据，误导你为病人做错事，或者在自己的论文中得出错误结论。你应该能够起诉LEO的虚假逮捕、侵犯你的权利和攻击。事实上，你不能（在当前的系统中，也不应该）做任何这些事情，这意味着不良行为者会不断地逃脱惩罚，而且没有真正的纠正前景 现在，这个问题是否同构于跟随在圆圈中的蚂蚁，我不确定；我不知道。大概看起来肯定没有人在考虑或谈论它。我知道州法律委员会是美国非常强大（也许是最强大）的游说团体，而严肃的司法系统改革将破坏他们的商业模式。但简单的事实是，我们的司法系统已经失败了。政府的核心职能已经失效。而公众几乎没有意识到这一点。